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UBS predicts limited economic effect of war

Tuesday, 15 March 2022 06:30

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A survey by the bank UBS suggests the Ukraine conflict will have a small impact on the Swiss economy, but shouldn’t threaten jobs.

The bank says higher energy prices will curb GDP growth this year from the initially expected 2.8% to 2.5%. 

Similarly, next year’s prediction is down from 1.7% to 1.5%. 

The bank points out Russia accounts for only 1.5% of Swiss exports – but this country does import 40% of Russian gas and 10% of petroleum. 

But order books are full and the job market remains healthy, says the bank. It expects the current high value of the franc will fall back – helping exporters. 

It also expects interest rate normalisation not to start until next year. 

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